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The Future of Suburbia Richard Krier, AICP, President Midwest Planning and Design (Rkrier@mchsi.com) John Archer, PhD, Chair, Department of Cultural Studies and Comparative Literature (archer@umn.edu) Quick look back using the Twin Cities as a growth Example Recasting suburban planning based on the incorporation differences, growth and change in local conditions, personal circumstances, diversifying interests in American and global society ,[object Object]
Questions,[object Object]
Developed between 1935- 1939 Developed before 1935 Parcel Development Twin Cities Metropolitan Area 1935-1939 ,[object Object]
9th Federal Reserve
Splendid Isolation
Extensive Land,[object Object]
Cheap land and cheap oil
Government promotion
Lending institutions
Annexation/ Minneapolis
Rejection lead to State intervention,[object Object]
Decision not to build rail mass transit system,[object Object]
Two Major Centers Added
Regional Exodus of Major Corporate HQ
Retention or new HQ in inner Subs,[object Object]
The changing American Dream Rags to riches: Horatio Alger, Ragged Dick; or Street Life in New York with the Bootblacks, 1866
The changing American Dream Opportunity for all to pull yourself up by your bootstraps and build a better life: Russell Conwell (1870s+) Dale Carnegie (1936) William Faulkner (1955)
The changing American Dream The dream house:  In music: Earle Foxe and Lynn Cowan (1926), Bing Crosby (1950), Red Sovine (1964); In film: Modern Times (1936), Mr Blandings Builds His Dream House (1948)
The changing American Dream The New Yorker, 20 July 1946 The Saturday Evening Post, 15 August 1959
The changing American Dream Newsweek, 15 May 1995 USA Today, 7 April 1998
The changing American Dream “Lifestyle Center”:  The Shoppes at Arbor Lakes,  Maple Grove, MN Lifestyle community: The Shire, Bend, OR
The changing American Dream Dimensions of change: economic resources: affluence/austerity social resources: social capital, community physical resources: land, energy, transport cultural values and ideals: selfhood, distinction, lifestyle, family, community aesthetics: picturesque-pastoral, historical-nostalgic, hip-and-smart
The changing American Dream
The changing global context Suburbia embodies capitalism  (it is not going away soon) individual entrepreneurship  +  property ownership =  the single-family detached house
The changing global context Capital as a global resource is evolving. It is: flexible resources are rapidly accumulated, shifted, and deployed smart capital can be selective and leveraged hybrid accomplishing mixed, multiple ends
The changing finance of home ownership 1920s and earlier: 50% down payment, 5-year payoff 1930s HOLC, FHA: small down payments, 30 year term; later, adjustable rate mortgages, securitized subprime loans…. Housing as a financial investment instrument Housing as a commodity: loses its identity with the person instead becomes an instrument for lifestyle lifestyles are codified in marketing
The changing agenda of planning Where and how will suburbia grow? [1] Richard Florida: “Suburbia is ill-fitted to a creative, post-industrial economy.” Instead, growth will center on areas of dense clustering of the “creative class,” and places with high “metabolism.” Christopher Leinberger: “Once large-lot, suburban residential landscapes are built, they are hard to unbuild.” McMansions “face resale at rock-bottom prices to low-income families.” Joel Kotkin Charles Leer
The changing agenda of planning Where and how will suburbia grow? [2] Richard Florida Christopher Leinberger Joel Kotkin: fringe areas, many currently run down, are cheap and hip; they afford great potential those who are comparatively less advantaged (lower capital costs, lower supply costs, lower cost of living). Think: bootstrapping the American Dream Charles Leer: $25,000 (maximum) three-year loans to bootstrap equity
The changing agenda of planning How much to control? MPCs: controls on design, use, change Gated communities: controls on access too Monocultural developments: controls on community separate sectors for single family houses, town houses, multifamily housing, etc within sectors, clusters and neighborhoods of same-sized units
Flexible planning 1(a). Flexible infrastructure responsive, at various scales, to changing demographics changing resource supplies (capital, energy, building materials, labor, land, public services, water) advancing technologies (energy; Internet; media) residents’ evolving aspirations, circumstances cross-effects of multiple constraints at once
Flexible planning 1(b). Flexible infrastructure “sustainable design,” “smart growth,” “green building”: especially concerned with changing resource supplies (capital, energy, building materials, labor, land, public services, water) advancing technologies (energy; Internet; media) compact planning and design efficiencies of scale efficiencies of proximity enhanced “metabolism” (Richard Florida)
Flexible planning 2. Flexible planning units clusters, neighborhoods, etc., that can evolve in (limited) new or different ways over time to accommodate residents’ changing lives and needs
Flexible planning 3. Flexible social capital neighborhoods evolve rather than turn over for example: keeping empty nesters in the community rather than expecting that they will move on
Flexible planning 4. Hybrid spaces meld desirable social features (e.g., activity clusters, diverse populations?) with longstanding, primary suburban characteristics: selfhood privacy domesticity lifestyle
Flexible planning 5. Flexible aesthetics: flexible codes and guidelines that allow residents to grow and change afford opportunity for distinctly different (but not necessarily opposed) interests such as scenographic aesthetics (“Martha Stewart Living”) and practical, everyday living
Flexible planning 6. Flexible community single-family vs. multifamily: myths and prejudices housing stock that can be resizable and reconfigurable to suit residents’ changing circumstances and larger demographic changes (avoid building single-niche monocultures)
Flexible planning 7(a). Flexible design Personalization, customization, affording distinction
Flexible planning 7(b). Flexible design Prefab/modular housing Flatpak (Minneapolis) Alchemy Architects (St Paul)
Flexible planning 7(c). Flexible design Designing for change: Avi Friedman The Adaptable House: Designing Homes for Change, 2002 Planning the New Suburbia: Flexibility by Design, 2002
Summary: the challenges in front of us Setting expectations: the American Dream Global capital: suburbia is capitalism embodied, capital is evolving rapidly Finance: housing as an investment, housing as a lifestyle commodity The planning agenda: how will suburbia grow?
Summary - flexible planning Flexible infrastructure Flexible planning units Flexible social capital Hybrid spaces Flexible aesthetics (codes and guidelines) Flexible community Flexible design

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The future of suburbia

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 6.
  • 7. Cheap land and cheap oil
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 14. Regional Exodus of Major Corporate HQ
  • 15.
  • 16. The changing American Dream Rags to riches: Horatio Alger, Ragged Dick; or Street Life in New York with the Bootblacks, 1866
  • 17. The changing American Dream Opportunity for all to pull yourself up by your bootstraps and build a better life: Russell Conwell (1870s+) Dale Carnegie (1936) William Faulkner (1955)
  • 18. The changing American Dream The dream house: In music: Earle Foxe and Lynn Cowan (1926), Bing Crosby (1950), Red Sovine (1964); In film: Modern Times (1936), Mr Blandings Builds His Dream House (1948)
  • 19. The changing American Dream The New Yorker, 20 July 1946 The Saturday Evening Post, 15 August 1959
  • 20. The changing American Dream Newsweek, 15 May 1995 USA Today, 7 April 1998
  • 21. The changing American Dream “Lifestyle Center”: The Shoppes at Arbor Lakes, Maple Grove, MN Lifestyle community: The Shire, Bend, OR
  • 22. The changing American Dream Dimensions of change: economic resources: affluence/austerity social resources: social capital, community physical resources: land, energy, transport cultural values and ideals: selfhood, distinction, lifestyle, family, community aesthetics: picturesque-pastoral, historical-nostalgic, hip-and-smart
  • 24. The changing global context Suburbia embodies capitalism (it is not going away soon) individual entrepreneurship + property ownership = the single-family detached house
  • 25. The changing global context Capital as a global resource is evolving. It is: flexible resources are rapidly accumulated, shifted, and deployed smart capital can be selective and leveraged hybrid accomplishing mixed, multiple ends
  • 26. The changing finance of home ownership 1920s and earlier: 50% down payment, 5-year payoff 1930s HOLC, FHA: small down payments, 30 year term; later, adjustable rate mortgages, securitized subprime loans…. Housing as a financial investment instrument Housing as a commodity: loses its identity with the person instead becomes an instrument for lifestyle lifestyles are codified in marketing
  • 27. The changing agenda of planning Where and how will suburbia grow? [1] Richard Florida: “Suburbia is ill-fitted to a creative, post-industrial economy.” Instead, growth will center on areas of dense clustering of the “creative class,” and places with high “metabolism.” Christopher Leinberger: “Once large-lot, suburban residential landscapes are built, they are hard to unbuild.” McMansions “face resale at rock-bottom prices to low-income families.” Joel Kotkin Charles Leer
  • 28. The changing agenda of planning Where and how will suburbia grow? [2] Richard Florida Christopher Leinberger Joel Kotkin: fringe areas, many currently run down, are cheap and hip; they afford great potential those who are comparatively less advantaged (lower capital costs, lower supply costs, lower cost of living). Think: bootstrapping the American Dream Charles Leer: $25,000 (maximum) three-year loans to bootstrap equity
  • 29. The changing agenda of planning How much to control? MPCs: controls on design, use, change Gated communities: controls on access too Monocultural developments: controls on community separate sectors for single family houses, town houses, multifamily housing, etc within sectors, clusters and neighborhoods of same-sized units
  • 30. Flexible planning 1(a). Flexible infrastructure responsive, at various scales, to changing demographics changing resource supplies (capital, energy, building materials, labor, land, public services, water) advancing technologies (energy; Internet; media) residents’ evolving aspirations, circumstances cross-effects of multiple constraints at once
  • 31. Flexible planning 1(b). Flexible infrastructure “sustainable design,” “smart growth,” “green building”: especially concerned with changing resource supplies (capital, energy, building materials, labor, land, public services, water) advancing technologies (energy; Internet; media) compact planning and design efficiencies of scale efficiencies of proximity enhanced “metabolism” (Richard Florida)
  • 32. Flexible planning 2. Flexible planning units clusters, neighborhoods, etc., that can evolve in (limited) new or different ways over time to accommodate residents’ changing lives and needs
  • 33. Flexible planning 3. Flexible social capital neighborhoods evolve rather than turn over for example: keeping empty nesters in the community rather than expecting that they will move on
  • 34. Flexible planning 4. Hybrid spaces meld desirable social features (e.g., activity clusters, diverse populations?) with longstanding, primary suburban characteristics: selfhood privacy domesticity lifestyle
  • 35. Flexible planning 5. Flexible aesthetics: flexible codes and guidelines that allow residents to grow and change afford opportunity for distinctly different (but not necessarily opposed) interests such as scenographic aesthetics (“Martha Stewart Living”) and practical, everyday living
  • 36. Flexible planning 6. Flexible community single-family vs. multifamily: myths and prejudices housing stock that can be resizable and reconfigurable to suit residents’ changing circumstances and larger demographic changes (avoid building single-niche monocultures)
  • 37. Flexible planning 7(a). Flexible design Personalization, customization, affording distinction
  • 38. Flexible planning 7(b). Flexible design Prefab/modular housing Flatpak (Minneapolis) Alchemy Architects (St Paul)
  • 39. Flexible planning 7(c). Flexible design Designing for change: Avi Friedman The Adaptable House: Designing Homes for Change, 2002 Planning the New Suburbia: Flexibility by Design, 2002
  • 40. Summary: the challenges in front of us Setting expectations: the American Dream Global capital: suburbia is capitalism embodied, capital is evolving rapidly Finance: housing as an investment, housing as a lifestyle commodity The planning agenda: how will suburbia grow?
  • 41. Summary - flexible planning Flexible infrastructure Flexible planning units Flexible social capital Hybrid spaces Flexible aesthetics (codes and guidelines) Flexible community Flexible design
  • 42. Recasting Suburban Planning to fit the Future Suburb Recognize the diverse ways and populations that do and will make up suburbia. Building capacity for progressive and deliberate change
  • 43. Planning based on the changing practice of everyday life or changing how we steer the boat Lets get into some examples: Expanding on traditional methods Non traditional methods Social Improvements and Social Capital Building
  • 44.
  • 45. Private market tear downs/ new homes
  • 46. rehab loans to first time home buyers,
  • 48. Density increase, mixed use and employment centersBloomington Central Station, Health Central HQ and MOA Best Buy Head Quarters Medtronic's Head Quarters
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. But suburbia is changing creating a need for non traditional planning and interventions: Mixed use Senior Housing Live Work Variety of Life Style Housing: Cluster Housing Cottage housing Adaptive Re-use Co-Housing
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 58. EquityBeyond traditional services Community in social capital building Granny Flat Life Cycle Housing Livability/ Sustainable: Vital Public Life Live Work Home Transit, Transit, Transit Alternative Transport & Walkability Equity Alternatives and LID